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CME Scoreboard: Prediction Detail

Prediction for CME (2015-06-18T17:24:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2015-06-18T17:24Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/8710/-1
CME Note: Clear indication of CME in AIA 171 and 193: opening/rising field lines starting around 16:30Z, followed by dimmings, two-ribbon flare, outflows. The CME was fast and bright, and also had a 360-degree halo/asymmetric shock structure.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2015-06-21T15:40Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
Max Kp: 4.0

Predicted Arrival Time: 2015-06-21T09:26Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 31.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 2.0 - 5.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (GSFC SWRC)
Prediction Method Note:

NASA GSFC SWRC ENLIL settings:
ENLIL version: 2.7
Resolution: low2 (256x30x90)
Ambient settings: a3b1f
WSA version: 2.2
(Enlil 2.7 w/res:low2 ambient:a3b1f, WSA2.2)

Multiple CMEs have been detected as follows:
1: C-type CME detected by SOHO. 

Start time of the event: 2015-06-18T03:18Z.

Estimated speed: ~693 km/s.

Estimated opening half-angle: 20 deg.

Direction (lon./lat.): -53/23 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates (see [1] in Notes).

Activity ID: 2015-06-18T03:18:00-CME-001

2: O-type CME detected by SOHO. 

Please enter the full notification:

Start time of the event: 2015-06-18T17:24Z.

Estimated speed: ~1000 km/s.

Estimated opening half-angle: 45 deg.

Direction (lon./lat.): -50/11 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.

Activity ID: 2015-06-18T17:24:00-CME-001

Based on preliminary heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center, it is estimated that the CMEs may affect Spitzer.  The leading edge of the CMEs will reach Spitzer at 2015-06-21T13:14Z (plus or minus 7 hours). 

The simulation also indicates that the CMEs may have an impact (or a glancing blow) at NASA missions near Earth. Simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CMEs will reach NASA missions near Earth at about 2015-06-21T09:26Z (plus or minus 7 hours). The roughly estimated expected range of the maximum Kp index is 2-5 (below minor to minor).

Lead Time: 61.70 hour(s)
Difference: 6.23 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Barbara Thompson (GSFC) on 2015-06-19T01:58Z

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